Seminars and Workshops Integrated Demand Supply Analysis of Pakistan for Energy Security and Sustainable Energy Supply

 

Topic of Research Seminar: Integrated Demand Supply Analysis of Pakistan for Energy Security and Sustainable Energy Supply

Abstract: Integrated resource planning is incomplete without estimation of long-term fuel demand. Pakistan is facing data shortage of energy resources and have little dependable long-term demand forecast models. Resultantly the country has not drafted the energy policy for the whole energy sector. Demand forecast is becoming necessity due to increasing population and decreasing fossil fuel resources. This study forecast fuel demand of Pakistan including all sectors of economy. LEAP modelling approach is used for fuel demand forecast and MCDMA is also applied in electricity supply model with LEAP framework. Eight scenarios are created to visualize the real picture of fuel demand and ten are generated for electricity supply analysis. Fuel demand may be as low as 129.7 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) and as high as 261.7 MTOE in 2040. The share of fuels in demand will be as: electricity 15.17%, natural gas 33.46%, CNG 2.79%, oil 32.88%, coal 13.38% and LPG 2.32%. This demand exclude fuel consumed in transformation of primary to secondary form of energy. For higher demand growth this study recommends dependency on renewables and indigenous resources instead of imported fossil fuels for energy security and sustainable energy supplies.

Subject Field of Topic: Integrated Demand Supply Analysis of Pakistan for Energy Security and Sustainable Energy Supply

Name of Speaker: Muhammad Shahid (Supervisor: Dr. Kafait Ullah)

Professorial Rank of Speaker: PhD Research Scholar

University Email of Speaker: 16phdshahid@uspcase.nust.edu.pk

Affiliation of Speaker: US-Pakistan Centre for Advanced Studies in Energy (USPCAS-E), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)

Date and Venue: October 12, 2022, 1100 – 1200 hrs, Seminar Hall, Ground Floor, USPCAS-E, NUST Islamabad Campus.